For decades, Nitin Goel’s family business in Ludhiana thrived on producing winter wear—jackets, sweaters, and sweatshirts. However, with India’s winters becoming shorter, his company faces dwindling sales and a forced shift in production. The seasonal shift is not just an inconvenience; it is a fundamental disruption that threatens the survival of small businesses that rely on winter sales.
Challenges Faced by Winter Clothing Businesses:
- Shorter winters: With the cold season getting progressively shorter, demand for winter wear has plummeted, forcing manufacturers to rethink their strategies.
- Drop in sales: Goel’s business has seen a drastic 50% decline in revenue over the past five years, with an additional 10% drop just this season alone.
- Shift in production: In response to changing weather patterns, manufacturers are now shifting their focus to producing T-shirts and lightweight apparel instead of traditional winter clothing.
- Payment changes: Retailers, once reliable in their purchases, have adopted a “sale or return” model. This means manufacturers bear the financial burden of unsold inventory, making business operations riskier.
- Heavier discounts: To attract reluctant buyers, businesses are forced to offer significant incentives and discounts, further squeezing their profit margins.
“Retailers are not picking up goods despite confirmed orders. Some small businesses in my town have even shut down,” Goel lamented, highlighting the dire consequences of this economic shift. The impact of changing seasons is not just limited to apparel; it’s disrupting entire supply chains and forcing businesses to adapt at a rapid pace.
India’s Hottest February in 125 Years
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that February 2023 was the hottest in 125 years. The changing climate is creating a ripple effect across industries, affecting business operations, agriculture, and even consumer behavior.
Key Weather Observations:
| Weather Factor | Observation |
|---|---|
| Minimum temperature | 1-3°C above normal in many regions |
| Heatwave forecast | Expected to persist through March-May |
| Impacted industries | Agriculture, textile, dairy, and retail |
With early summer setting in, businesses are scrambling to cope with the new climate reality. These unprecedented temperature increases are causing uncertainty and volatility across sectors.
Alphonso Mango Orchards Suffer Heavy Losses
Nearly 1,200 miles away in Devgad, Maharashtra, the soaring temperatures are wreaking havoc on India’s prized Alphonso mango crops. The Alphonso mango, known for its sweetness and aroma, is one of India’s most sought-after fruit exports. However, the excessive heat is threatening both yield and quality.
Mango Farmers’ Struggles:
- Low yield: Production is estimated to be only 30% of the normal output, making this a particularly bad year for mango farmers.
- Higher costs: The need for additional irrigation and fertilizers has significantly increased production expenses, cutting into farmers’ profits.
- Loss of labor: Many farmers are sending back their seasonal laborers, mostly from Nepal, due to the reduced workload caused by poor harvests.
“We might face huge losses this year,” said Vidyadhar Joshi, a mango farmer who owns 1,500 trees. The mango industry isn’t just facing economic consequences but also social ones, as laborers lose their seasonal employment and rural economies suffer.
Rising Temperatures Threaten Food Security
Climate change is not just impacting mango orchards—it is threatening India’s staple crops such as wheat, chickpea, and rapeseed, which are essential for domestic consumption and exports.
Implications for Agriculture:
- 2022 heatwaves: Previous heatwaves resulted in a 15-25% drop in wheat yields, raising concerns for this year’s harvest.
- Water shortages: Reservoir levels in northern India have dropped to 28% of capacity, compared to 37% last year. This significantly reduces the availability of water for irrigation, affecting crops and livestock.
- Impact on dairy sector: The rising temperatures have led to heat stress in livestock, contributing to a decline of up to 15% in milk production in some regions.
Experts warn that if similar trends continue, India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, may be forced to rely on costly imports, affecting global food prices and domestic economic stability.
Economic Impact of Climate Change
India’s economy, particularly the agricultural sector, is at risk due to rising temperatures. The effects of climate change extend beyond farming, affecting retail, manufacturing, and even national economic policies.
Sectoral Impact:
| Sector | Impact |
| Agriculture | Reduced yields and water shortages |
| Retail & Textile | Declining winter wear sales |
| Dairy Industry | 15% drop in milk production |
| Inflation | Rising food prices could impact RBI’s 4% target |
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, warns that these inflationary pressures could reverse recent economic improvements and increase financial instability in both urban and rural households.
Urgent Action Needed to Combat Heatwaves
Think tanks like the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW) emphasize the need for immediate action to mitigate the impact of recurrent heat waves. Some proposed measures include:
- Improved weather forecasting infrastructure: Strengthening early warning systems to help businesses and farmers prepare for extreme temperatures.
- Better agricultural insurance policies: Providing financial protection against crop failures due to climate change.
- Climate-based cropping calendars: Adjusting sowing and harvesting periods based on evolving climate trends.
- Efficient water management strategies: Implementing better irrigation techniques to optimize water usage.
Without swift action, India risks significant economic and environmental instability, from which it could take years to recover.
FAQs
1. Why is India experiencing shorter winters?
Climate change, driven by rising global temperatures, is altering seasonal patterns. Higher temperatures have led to early-onset summers, reducing the duration of winter months and impacting industries dependent on colder weather.
2. How is climate change impacting Indian farmers?
Farmers are facing reduced crop yields, increased irrigation costs, and labor shortages due to extreme weather patterns and irregular rainfall. This is particularly affecting staple crops like wheat and commercial crops like mangoes.
3. What industries are most affected by rising temperatures in India?
The textile, agriculture, dairy, and retail industries are facing the brunt of climate change. Declining winter wear sales, lower farm yields, increased costs in dairy production, and disruptions in supply chains are key challenges.
4. What can be done to mitigate the effects of heat waves in India?
Adopting better weather forecasting systems, providing financial support to farmers, revising cropping patterns, and implementing sustainable water management strategies can help mitigate the impact of rising temperatures. Government and private sector collaboration is crucial in implementing these measures.
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